212 Blue Ridge Dr #9

Green Hill, TN 37138

$199,990D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $262/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $55,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($262/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (16.1% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $168k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#77 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Wright Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #67 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 514 students, 0% FRL); Mt. Juliet Middle School (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #49 of 333 statewide, top 15%, 1,022 students, 0% FRL); Green Hill High School (math 3% / reading 54%, grade F, #96 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 1,662 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 255 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Green Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.