686 Private Rd 307-a

Seminole, TX 79360

$75,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $366/mo
• Annual: $4,389/yr
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.90%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#7 in TX, #618 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Seminole ISD (town): math 50% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #228 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Young El (592 students, 67% FRL); Seminole J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 675 students, 55% FRL); Seminole H S (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 784 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Gaines County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gaines County population projected at +58% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Windows — Some windows appear to have missing or loose screens.
• Minor: Electrical — Some electrical boxes and wiring are exposed, indicating potential issues.
• Minor: Plumbing — Some plumbing fixtures are exposed, indicating potential issues.
• Minor: Landscaping — Minimal landscaping, mostly dry grass and dirt. Consider adding some landscaping to improve curb appeal.