686 Private Rd 307-a · Seminole, TX 79360

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 2.50 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 2.5 acres is ready for you to finish it. The house was built in 2024 and just needs someone to finish the home.

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#7 in TX, #618 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Seminole ISD (town): math 50% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #228 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Gaines County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gaines County population projected at +58% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.90%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $11,156
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $39,775
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79360

• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $392	+0% $366	+5% $340	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $322	+0% $366	+5% $410	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $385	base $366	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    price $75,000 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 2.5 acres is ready for you to finish it. The house was built in 2024 and just needs someone to finish the home.

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $80,000 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 2.5 acres is ready for you to finish it. The house was built in 2024 and just needs someone to finish the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $3,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in good condition with a moderate level of renovation needed. It has a good roof and exterior, but requires some interior finishing and landscaping to maximize its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Windows — Some windows appear to have missing or loose screens.
• Minor Electrical — Some electrical boxes and wiring are exposed, indicating potential issues.
• Minor Plumbing — Some plumbing fixtures are exposed, indicating potential issues.
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping, mostly dry grass and dirt. Consider adding some landscaping to improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can significantly improve curb appeal and property value.
• Both Complete interior finishing — Finishing the interior will make the home move-in ready and increase its value.
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs.
• Both Add a front porch or entryway — A front porch or entryway can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Windows · Some windows appear to have missing or loose screens.	Minor	$500–3,000
Electrical · Some electrical boxes and wiring are exposed, indicating potential issues.	Minor	$500–3,000
Plumbing · Some plumbing fixtures are exposed, indicating potential issues.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping, mostly dry grass and dirt. Consider adding some landscaping to improve curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can significantly improve curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Complete interior finishing — Finishing the interior will make the home move-in ready and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Add a front porch or entryway — A front porch or entryway can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,745
• Composite: 40.28/100
• National rank: #3762
• State rank: #228 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seminole

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #618

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,284

Population outlook (Gaines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,287 people
• By 2030: 27,989 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 33,895 · +34.0%
• By 2050: 40,001 · +58.2%
• By 2075: 55,259 · +118.5%
• By 2100: 65,681 · +159.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Polish 3% German 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · German/W. Germanic 43% Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Gaines

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.6) · D 8.4% · R 91.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -67.2pp · 2024: -82.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.6 2020: R+79.7 2016: R+71.8 2012: R+72.5 2008: R+67.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.01%
• Current HPI: 171.5513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $75,000 ODMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $80,000 ODMLS