18315 Palazzo Romano Ln

Woodbranch, TX 77357

$189,999D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,939/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-177/mo
• Annual: $-2,126/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 11415% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
• Minor: Kitchen appliances — No visible damage
• Minor: Landscaping — Some overgrown areas