18315 Palazzo Romano Ln · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$189,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition 2,800 sqft lot $146/sqft · 11% below area Est $214k · 11% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this great 3 bedroom 2 1/2 home in the master planned community of Tavola. This home is equipped with a washer, dryer and all stainless steel appliances. It offers an open kitchen/living combo with beautiful white cabinets. Downstairs is all wood flooring. Don't miss this great opputnuity!

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• 2,800 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN KITCHEN LIVING COMBO
• WOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 11415% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.

Recommended offer $158,700 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,105
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -11.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18598 Cepagatti Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	3mo	$205,000	$156	76
18065 Trepito Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-2%)	5mo	$231,990	$182	74
18080 Trepito Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-2%)	6mo	$234,990	$185	73
18077 Trepito Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	4mo	$243,990	$172	64
18076 Trepito Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$236,990	$168	62
18061 Trepito Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	6mo	$215,890	$152	61
18060 Trepito Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$235,990	$167	61
18068 Trepito Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	6mo	$241,990	$171	61
18052 Trepito Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	6mo	$240,990	$170	59
20939 San Felice Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	6mo	$259,990	$183	59
21612 Casavatore Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+13%)	0mo	$230,000	$157	55
18722 Clearwater Brook Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-8%)	3mo	$204,500	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-47,096
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-74,984
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,302/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,163

Max offer price $158,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-123	+0% $-177	+5% $-231	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-254	+0% $-177	+5% $-101	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-129	base $-177	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	5d	1	0.06mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,750	$1.57	7d	1	0.08mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.40mi
19308 Via Vinovo Ct New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	1.27mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	26d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,999 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,999 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,999 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,999 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,999 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-01-29
    price $1,595
16. 2026-01-28
    price $189,999 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Welcome to this great 3 bedroom 2 1/2 home in the master planned community of Tavola. This home is equipped with a washer, dryer and all stainless steel appliances. It offers an open kitchen/living combo with beautiful white cabinets. Downstairs is all wood flooring. Don't miss this great opputnuity!

17. 2026-01-25
    listed $1,650
18. 2026-01-22
    listed $199,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Welcome to this great 3 bedroom 2 1/2 home in the master planned community of Tavola. This home is equipped with a washer, dryer and all stainless steel appliances. It offers an open kitchen/living combo with beautiful white cabinets. Downstairs is all wood flooring. Don't miss this great opputnuity!

19. 2025-01-30
    soldstatus
20. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus Sold 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

21. 2024-12-31
    price $213,990 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

22. 2024-12-31
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

23. 2024-12-12
    price $175,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

24. 2024-11-22
    price $190,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

25. 2024-11-18
    listed $213,990 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Baja'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! This new two-story home features a modern, open-concept design that maximizes the footprint of the interior. The U-shaped kitchen overlooks a family room ideal for entertainment and relaxation, with a rear door connecting to the backyard. Two upper-level bedrooms provide restful accommodations, while at the opposite end of the hallway is the private owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$7,302
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $-884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with fresh paint and updated cabinets being the highest-ROI updates for both resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
• Minor Kitchen appliances — No visible damage
• Minor Landscaping — Some overgrown areas

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and attracts tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen appliances · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some overgrown areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Fresh cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and attracts tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $189,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $213,990 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-18 Listed $213,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+554.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,302 · +554.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.