701 Ferguson Trl

Miller's Cove, TX 75480

$385,900D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 270 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-584/mo
• Annual: $-7,009/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $108,052

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $386k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (35.5% below list).
• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.