701 Ferguson Trl · Miller's Cove, TX 75480

$385,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 269 Days on market

Built 1985 0.80 ac lot $223/sqft · 43% below area $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the sought-after Swannerland subdivision near Lake Cypress Springs, this stunning property is a masterpiece of design and functionality. Every inch of this home has been meticulously renovated, from the elegant floors to the fresh paint palette. The spacious open-plan living and dining area are perfect for entertaining, and the chef-inspired kitchen boasts a massive island, top-of-the-line appliances, and plenty of storage space. The luxurious primary suite offers a private oasis with a spa-like ensuite bath. Three additional guest rooms share a stylish hall bath. Outside, the detached garage adds a bonus space for parking or a workshop. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional home - schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Massive island
• Lake cypress springs
• 0.8 acre lot

Tags

• SWANNERLAND SUBDIVISION
• LAKE CYPRESS SPRINGS
• METICULOUSLY RENOVATED
• OPEN-PLAN LIVING AND DINING
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• MASSIVE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $386k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL); Mt Vernon Middle (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 472 students, 72% FRL); Mt Vernon H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,831 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $916,575
• List price: $385,900
• Delta: -57.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $54,496
• Equity at exit: $221,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $195,628
• Equity at exit: $385,010

Cash invested: $108,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,024
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,784/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,228

Max offer price $282,718

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-366	-5% $-475	+0% $-584	+5% $-693	+10% $-803
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-682	+0% $-584	+5% $-486	+10% $-388
Rate	-1.0pp $-390	-0.5pp $-486	base $-584	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,475
• Closing costs: $11,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,900 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $385,900 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,900 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,900 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,900 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,900 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $385,900 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $385,900 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,900 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $385,900 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,900 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $385,900 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,900 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,900 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,900 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $385,900 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $385,900 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Nestled in the sought-after Swannerland subdivision near Lake Cypress Springs, this stunning property is a masterpiece of design and functionality. Every inch of this home has been meticulously renovated, from the elegant floors to the fresh paint palette. The spacious open-plan living and dining area are perfect for entertaining, and the chef-inspired kitchen boasts a massive island, top-of-the-line appliances, and plenty of storage space. The luxurious primary suite offers a private oasis with a spa-like ensuite bath. Three additional guest rooms share a stylish hall bath. Outside, the detached garage adds a bonus space for parking or a workshop. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional home - schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-04-01
    price $385,900 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Nestled in the sought-after Swannerland subdivision near Lake Cypress Springs, this stunning property is a masterpiece of design and functionality. Every inch of this home has been meticulously renovated, from the elegant floors to the fresh paint palette. The spacious open-plan living and dining area are perfect for entertaining, and the chef-inspired kitchen boasts a massive island, top-of-the-line appliances, and plenty of storage space. The luxurious primary suite offers a private oasis with a spa-like ensuite bath. Three additional guest rooms share a stylish hall bath. Outside, the detached garage adds a bonus space for parking or a workshop. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional home - schedule your private tour today!

19. 2025-09-25
    listed $399,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Nestled in the sought-after Swannerland subdivision near Lake Cypress Springs, this stunning property is a masterpiece of design and functionality. Every inch of this home has been meticulously renovated, from the elegant floors to the fresh paint palette. The spacious open-plan living and dining area are perfect for entertaining, and the chef-inspired kitchen boasts a massive island, top-of-the-line appliances, and plenty of storage space. The luxurious primary suite offers a private oasis with a spa-like ensuite bath. Three additional guest rooms share a stylish hall bath. Outside, the detached garage adds a bonus space for parking or a workshop. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional home - schedule your private tour today!

20. 2025-09-23
    listed $399,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Nestled in the sought-after Swannerland subdivision near Lake Cypress Springs, this stunning property is a masterpiece of design and functionality. Every inch of this home has been meticulously renovated, from the elegant floors to the fresh paint palette. The spacious open-plan living and dining area are perfect for entertaining, and the chef-inspired kitchen boasts a massive island, top-of-the-line appliances, and plenty of storage space. The luxurious primary suite offers a private oasis with a spa-like ensuite bath. Three additional guest rooms share a stylish hall bath. Outside, the detached garage adds a bonus space for parking or a workshop. Don't miss your chance to own this exceptional home - schedule your private tour today!

21. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus
22. 2025-02-01
    historical
23. 2024-08-09
    status Active
24. 2024-08-09
    status Active
25. 2024-08-07
    historical
26. 2024-08-06
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2024-08-05
    listed $265,000 Active
28. 2024-08-05
    listed $265,000 Active
29. 2024-06-02
    price $279,500
30. 2024-05-29
    price $297,500
31. 2024-05-13
    price $335,500
32. 2024-02-02
    listed $369,000 Active
33. 2023-12-09
    price $359,000
34. 2023-10-14
    price $389,000
35. 2023-09-20
    listed $425,000 Active
36. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus
37. 2022-10-24
    soldstatus
38. 2022-09-09
    listed $269,500
39. 2013-02-27
    soldstatus
40. 2005-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,062 · $588/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,278/yr (+$273/mo · 86.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,616
• − Property taxes: −$3,784
• − Insurance: −$1,930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,226
• Taxable loss: −$14,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Miller's Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $385,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $385,900 GTAR
• 2025-09-25 Listed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $399,000 GTAR
• 2025-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-09 Relisted — GTAR
• 2024-08-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-07 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-08-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $265,000 GTAR
• 2024-08-05 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $279,500 GTAR
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $297,500 GTAR
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $335,500 GTAR
• 2024-02-02 Listed $369,000 GTAR
• 2023-12-09 Price Changed $359,000 GTAR
• 2023-10-14 Price Changed $389,000 GTAR
• 2023-09-20 Listed $425,000 GTAR
• 2022-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-24 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-09-09 Listed $269,500 GTAR
• 2013-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,784 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.