Timberhill A Plan

Gainesville, GA 30501

$243,816F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,711 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 629 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,640
• Tax + insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-579/mo
• Annual: $-6,953/yr
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.94%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $87,553

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 629 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Gainesville City (urban): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #130 of 174 in GA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Arts Academy (math 25% / reading 17%, grade F, #850 of 1,228 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville Middle School East (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 841 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 2,294 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 629 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.