Timberhill A Plan · Gainesville, GA 30501

$243,816

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,711 sqft · SingleFamily · 629 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy cabin feel for the country or the mountains with a covered front deck to enjoy the scenery. You will love this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath plan. You will find the master on the main floor and 2 bedrooms upstairs. The optional fireplace is sure to warm up the spacious great room.

Key facts

• Master on main floor
• Optional fireplace
• Covered front deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR
• OPTIONAL FIREPLACE

🏗️ New construction. The $243,816 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,688.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Gainesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#181 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Gainesville City (urban): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #130 of 174 in GA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Arts Academy (math 25% / reading 17%, grade F, #850 of 1,228 statewide, top 70%, 808 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville Middle School East (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 841 students, 73% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 2,294 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 629 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,187 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 629 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.94%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,688
• List price: $243,816
• Delta: -22.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2130 Westhaven Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-10%)	21mo	$305,000	$198	55
2228 Brandywine Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-18%)	20mo	$290,000	$206	50
2112 Catalina Dr	1.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,716 (+0%)	14mo	$340,000	$198	48
49 Highland Ave	0.97mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,738 (+2%)	6mo	$149,000	$86	46
2502 Hollow Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-10%)	19mo	$295,000	$192	44
235 Tower Heights Rd	1.09mi	3/1.5	1,903 (+11%)	5mo	$370,000	$194	38
303 Second St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,529 (-11%)	19mo	$268,000	$175	34
13 Hilltop St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-16%)	14mo	$273,000	$189	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,374
• Equity at exit: $46,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-107,442
• Equity at exit: $27,036

Cash invested: $87,553 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,392 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 593 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30501

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,640
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,690/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,735

Max offer price $228,842

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-363	-5% $-471	+0% $-579	+5% $-687	+10% $-796
Rent	-10% $-738	-5% $-659	+0% $-579	+5% $-500	+10% $-421
Rate	-1.0pp $-422	-0.5pp $-500	base $-579	+0.5pp $-660	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,172
• Closing costs: $9,381
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Shallowford Rd NW Gainesville, GA	2.0–4.0	2.5	1859	$2,455	$1.32	0d	74	0.67mi
2161 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,025	$1.15	0d	1	1.21mi
1100 Park Creek Ct Gainesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,759	$1.81	0d	21	1.23mi
2223 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,025	$1.15	139d	1	1.24mi
2235 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,025	$1.15	0d	1	1.26mi
2309 Deerhaven Xing Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,025	$1.19	108d	1	1.31mi
2313 Deerhaven Xing Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,025	$1.15	89d	1	1.31mi
2283 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,025	$1.19	108d	1	1.34mi
1050 Eagle Eye Rd Gainesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1120	$1,537	$1.37	109d	10	1.35mi
835 Johnson St Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	109d	1	1.35mi
2354 Deerhaven Xing Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,025	$1.19	139d	1	1.35mi
2299 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,025	$1.19	0d	1	1.36mi
2426 Peak Ridge Ln Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1733	$2,025	$1.17	0d	1	1.41mi
2356 Birch Mountain Run Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,025	$1.15	3d	1	1.41mi
2430 Peak Ridge Ln Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,025	$1.19	69d	1	1.42mi
915 Washington St SW Gainesville, GA	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,650	$1.40	109d	1	1.43mi
2451 Peak Ridge Ln Gainesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1733	$2,025	$1.17	67d	1	1.44mi
915 Washington St NW Unit 917-1 Gainesville, GA	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,650	$1.40	6d	1	1.45mi
915 Washington St NW Unit 917-15 Gainesville, GA	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,650	$1.40	116d	1	1.45mi
2904 Cannes Cir SW Gainesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,250	$1.34	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-21
   days on market $243,816 Active 629 DOM
2. 2026-09-20
   days on market $243,816 Active 628 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   days on market $243,816 Active 626 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $243,816 Active 625 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $243,816 Active 624 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $243,816 Active 623 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $243,816 Active 622 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $243,816 Active 621 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $243,816 Active 620 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $243,816 Active 619 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $243,816 Active 613 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $243,816 Active 612 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $243,816 Active 611 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $243,816 Active 608 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $243,816 Active 607 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $243,816 Active 606 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $243,816 Active 605 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $243,816 Active 604 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $243,816 Active 603 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $243,816 Active 602 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $243,816 Active 601 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $243,816 Active 600 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $243,816 Active 599 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $243,816 Active 598 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $243,816 Active 597 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $243,816 Active 596 DOM
27. 2026-07-08
    days on market $243,816 Active 595 DOM
28. 2026-07-07
    days on market $243,816 Active 594 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $243,816 Active 593 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $243,816 Active 592 DOM
31. 2026-07-04
    days on market $243,816 Active 591 DOM
32. 2026-07-03
    days on market $243,816 Active 590 DOM
33. 2026-07-02
    days on market $243,816 Active 589 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $243,816 Active 588 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $243,816 Active 587 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $243,816 Active 586 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $243,816 Active 585 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $243,816 Active 583 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $243,816 Active 581 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $243,816 Active 580 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $243,816 Active 577 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $243,816 Active 576 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $243,816 Active 575 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $240,379 Active 574 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $240,379 Active 572 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $240,379 Active 571 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $240,379 Active 569 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,379 Active 568 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,379 Active 567 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,379 Active 566 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,515
• − Property taxes: −$4,690
• − Insurance: −$1,563
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$9,096
• Taxable loss: −$12,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,555–$25,665 screening

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner and could benefit from some landscaping and smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both add smart home features — increases appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gainesville Exploration Academy F GA #850/1,228 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle Gainesville Middle School West High Gainesville High School F GA #258/424 Nat'l #14,759/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gainesville City
• NCES district ID: 1302310
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,331
• Composite: 20.3/100
• National rank: #8614
• State rank: #130 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #11362

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, GA
• County: Hall County · 225,275 people
• City population: 140,301
• Metro: Gainesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,258
• Household income: $64,175
• Rent vs Own: 62.6% rent · 37.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,275 people
• By 2030: 240,204 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 268,440 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 293,596 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 350,293 · +55.5%
• By 2100: 389,329 · +72.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 18% Black 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.8% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+56.4 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.22%
• Current HPI: 286.1181
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Metro: Gainesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $240,379 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $233,151 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $250,485 Zillow
• 2024-08-19 Listed $256,934 Zillow