7640 Wd Ct

Lipan, TX 76462

$454,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 405 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-1,455/mo
• Annual: $-17,465/yr
• Cap rate: 2.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.71%
• DSCR: 0.39
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (56.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (63.8% below list).
• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (63.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#974 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, employment D.
• Lipan ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #211 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 0.4% in Lipan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.