7640 Wd Ct · Lipan, TX 76462

$454,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 405 Days on market

Built 2007 2.00 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SIXTEEN ACRES! Nestled on an impressive 16 acres of land, 7640 WD Court offers a unique mobile-style home with expansive surroundings. Boasting four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the interior features vinyl flooring, creating a cozy and low-maintenance ambiance. The spacious family room and fully functional kitchen cater to comfortable living and entertaining spaces. The owner's suite stands out with a stone fireplace, built-in shelving, and its own bathroom that features double sinks, a walk-in shower, and a garden bathtub for relaxation. Additionally, the property includes a large storage shed in the yard, providing you with additional storage solutions. Being sold AS IS. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name ad make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Stone fireplace
• Sixteen acres
• Built-in shelving

Tags

• SIXTEEN ACRES
• STONE FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• GARDEN BATHTUB
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (56.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (63.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (63.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 0.4% in Lipan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#974 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, employment D.
• Lipan ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #211 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,648 (63.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.71%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 23.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $154,895
• Equity at exit: $409,899

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $528,612
• Equity at exit: $883,963

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76462

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 23.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,166/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-1,455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,489

Max offer price $197,896

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,999 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $454,999 Active 404 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $454,999 Active 403 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $454,999 Active 402 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,999 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,999 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $454,999 Active 396 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $454,999 Active 395 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $454,999 Active 394 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $454,999 Active 391 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $454,999 Active 390 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,999 Active 389 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,999 Active 388 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,999 Active 387 DOM
15. 2026-02-17
    price $454,999 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    SIXTEEN ACRES! Nestled on an impressive 16 acres of land, 7640 WD Court offers a unique mobile-style home with expansive surroundings. Boasting four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the interior features vinyl flooring, creating a cozy and low-maintenance ambiance. The spacious family room and fully functional kitchen cater to comfortable living and entertaining spaces. The owner's suite stands out with a stone fireplace, built-in shelving, and its own bathroom that features double sinks, a walk-in shower, and a garden bathtub for relaxation. Additionally, the property includes a large storage shed in the yard, providing you with additional storage solutions. Being sold AS IS. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name ad make this your dream home.

16. 2025-05-09
    listed $484,999 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    SIXTEEN ACRES! Nestled on an impressive 16 acres of land, 7640 WD Court offers a unique mobile-style home with expansive surroundings. Boasting four bedrooms and two bathrooms, the interior features vinyl flooring, creating a cozy and low-maintenance ambiance. The spacious family room and fully functional kitchen cater to comfortable living and entertaining spaces. The owner's suite stands out with a stone fireplace, built-in shelving, and its own bathroom that features double sinks, a walk-in shower, and a garden bathtub for relaxation. Additionally, the property includes a large storage shed in the yard, providing you with additional storage solutions. Being sold AS IS. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name ad make this your dream home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,326 · $694/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,161/yr (+$513/mo · 284.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$2,166
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$26,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,376
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lipan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827630
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,744
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3608
• State rank: #211 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lipan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #17249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,920

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.20%
• Current HPI: 347.1688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $454,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $484,999 HARMLS