3903 Lincoln St

Seaford, NY 11783

$699,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,144/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$1,247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,080
• Net cashflow: $-849/mo
• Annual: $-10,186/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-849 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $514k (26.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $514k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#115 in NY, #1,864 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Seaford Union Free School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #53 of 590 in NY (top 9%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Seaford Manor School (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 445 students, 10% FRL); Seaford Middle School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 517 students, 15% FRL); Seaford Senior High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 658 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Seaford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.