809 Missouri River Dr

Adrian, MI 49221

$65,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Pending · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$343
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,388/mo
• Annual: $16,655/yr
• Cap rate: 31.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.81%
• DSCR: 5.04
• 1% rule: 3.44%
• Cash to close: $18,340

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $453 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Madison School District (Lenawee) (town): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #195 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 31.7% vs local median 5.6% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.