809 Missouri River Dr · Adrian, MI 49221

$65,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · Other · 114 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Premium lot
• Wooded area

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• WOODED AREA
• CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN LIVING DINING KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Ranch-style residence; Single-story (ranch)
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 14); Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 12); Bedroom 2 (11 x 9); Bedroom 3 (10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.7% vs local median 5.6% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Madison School District (Lenawee) (town): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #195 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $453 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $59,605 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.81%
• DSCR: 5.04
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $77,781
• Equity at exit: $9,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.90×
• Total profit: $181,539
• Equity at exit: $5,663

Cash invested: $18,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$343
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $493

Max offer price $65,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,425	-5% $1,406	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,369	+10% $1,351
Rent	-10% $1,210	-5% $1,299	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,477	+10% $1,566
Rate	-1.0pp $1,421	-0.5pp $1,405	base $1,388	+0.5pp $1,371	+1.0pp $1,354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,375
• Closing costs: $1,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1962 W Cadmus Rd Adrian, MI	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	22d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Under Contract 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

2. 2026-05-13
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

3. 2026-05-13
   historical Active - Contingent

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $65,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

5. 2026-04-30
   price $65,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

6. 2026-04-30
   price $65,500

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

7. 2026-04-09
   price $67,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

8. 2026-04-08
   price $67,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

9. 2026-04-08
   price $67,500

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

10. 2026-03-25
    price $69,500 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

11. 2026-03-24
    price $69,500 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

12. 2026-03-24
    price $69,500

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

13. 2026-03-09
    price $72,500 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

14. 2026-03-09
    price $72,500 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

15. 2026-03-09
    price $72,500

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

16. 2026-02-17
    price $75,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

17. 2026-02-17
    price $75,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

18. 2026-02-17
    price $75,000

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

19. 2026-02-03
    listed $80,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

20. 2026-02-03
    listed $80,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

21. 2026-02-03
    listed $80,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Nice home with a garage for sale in Hidden River North! This home is located on a premium lot, backing up to a wooded area and near the end of the cul-de-sac. Inside you'll find a nice open living/dining/kitchen floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, breakfast nook and laundry room. Outside is a 16x22 detached garage and a deck. Lot rent is $750/mo + $30 lot premium.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $225 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 174.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,669
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,905
• Taxable income: $16,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,973
• After-tax cash flow: $12,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District (Lenawee)
• NCES district ID: 2622320
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,961
• Composite: 35.35/100
• National rank: #4959
• State rank: #195 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $65,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $65,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $65,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $67,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $67,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $67,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $69,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $69,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $69,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $72,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $72,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $72,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $80,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · -23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.