4869 East Rd

Turin, NY 13473

$139,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $12/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($12/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.2% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#662 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• South Lewis Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #450 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Lewis Elementary School (463 students, 57% FRL); South Lewis Middle School (math 29% / reading 48%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 308 students, 61% FRL); South Lewis High School (math 87% / reading 74%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 272 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Lewis Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $140k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.