4869 East Rd · Turin, NY 13473

$139,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1900 0.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modest size country home on about one half acre situated right on a snowmobile trail. Has eat-in kitchen with built-in range and oven. Has one BR (or den) on the first floor, 3 BR's on the second. Attached garage for one vehicle. Off premises water source with deeded right-of-way. Ideal property for the first time homebuyer or the snowmobile enthusiast. See it today!!

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Minutes from skiing
• Peaceful creek

Tags

• 0.52 ACRE LOT
• PEACEFUL CREEK
• DIRECT PROXIMITY TO ATV TRAILS
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL GOLF COURSE
• MINUTES FROM SKIING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($12/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#662 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• South Lewis Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #450 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Lewis Elementary School (463 students, 57% FRL); South Lewis Middle School (math 29% / reading 48%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 308 students, 61% FRL); South Lewis High School (math 87% / reading 74%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 272 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Lewis Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $140k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $131,214 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,197
• Equity at exit: $51,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $36,347
• Equity at exit: $71,290

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13473

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $41	+0% $1	+5% $-39	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-51	+0% $1	+5% $53	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $37	base $1	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2011-04-26
   soldstatus $65,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Modest size country home on about one half acre situated right on a snowmobile trail. Has eat-in kitchen with built-in range and oven. Has one BR (or den) on the first floor, 3 BR's on the second. Attached garage for one vehicle. Off premises water source with deeded right-of-way. Ideal property for the first time homebuyer or the snowmobile enthusiast. See it today!!

5. 2011-04-25
   soldstatus $65,000
6. 2010-02-19
   listed $74,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Modest size country home on about one half acre situated right on a snowmobile trail. Has eat-in kitchen with built-in range and oven. Has one BR (or den) on the first floor, 3 BR's on the second. Attached garage for one vehicle. Off premises water source with deeded right-of-way. Ideal property for the first time homebuyer or the snowmobile enthusiast. See it today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Lewis Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627360
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,641
• Composite: 39.35/100
• National rank: #3980
• State rank: #450 of 590 in NY

Livability — Turin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #12346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,060

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 7% Italian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Current HPI: 311.5638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $139,900 CNYIS
• 2011-04-26 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CNYIS
• 2011-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-19 Listed $74,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,126 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.