15111 Pipeline #166

Chino Hills, CA 91709

$172,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $1,770/mo
• Annual: $21,239/yr
• Cap rate: 18.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.87%
• DSCR: 2.95
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $48,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $173k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#299 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chino Valley Unified (suburban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #334 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenmeade Elementary (424 students, 42% FRL); Robert O. Townsend Junior High (879 students, 30% FRL); Chino Hills High (math 57% / reading 76%, grade B, #151 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 2,800 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chino Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $173k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 2.1% in Chino Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.