15111 Pipeline #166 · Chino Hills, CA 91709

$172,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $306k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 bedroom, 1 3/4 bath mobile home in the Lake Los Serranos Senior Living Community of Chino Hills. Home boasts a large living room with attached dining area, light and bright kitchen with plenty of cabinet space plus eating bar. Cozy family room, big side porch, two storage sheds, small yard. Carport for two possibly three cars. New flooring will be installed in the master bath early January. Needs some updating, but a lot of potential. Title shows square footage of 1608 (not taped buyer to verify). Please confirm space rent when you pick up your park application from the park manager.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessments: Unknown — buyer to verify
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,400 monthly (seller provided)
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Senior community; Park name: Lake Los Serranos; Community features include lake and fishing; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Covered tandem carport (2 spaces); Guest parking available; Carport attached
• Security: Manager approval required for the park; Pet restrictions (size, breed and number limits)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story; Entry at patio; Mobile home remains (24' x 67'); Repairs cosmetic
• Construction: Lap siding; Pier jacks foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Porch; Back yard; Community pool; Shed (1); Lake on lot and community fishing; South-facing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Open to family room; Gas cooktop; Built-in range; Double oven; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Dishwasher; Water heater unit
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom; Soaking tub; Bathtub; Walk-in shower and separate shower in tub; Exhaust fan(s)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Balcony; Built-ins; Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Blinds; Community spa; Resident manager; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $173k).
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 2.1% in Chino Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#299 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chino Valley Unified (suburban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #334 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenmeade Elementary (424 students, 42% FRL); Robert O. Townsend Junior High (879 students, 30% FRL); Chino Hills High (math 57% / reading 76%, grade B, #151 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 2,800 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chino Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $173k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.87%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15111 Pipeline #59	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+2%)	2mo	$360,000	$219	95
15111 Pipeline Ave #120	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-6%)	8mo	$287,500	$190	79
15111 Pipeline Ave #196	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-12%)	2mo	$285,000	$201	78
15111 Pipeline Ave #302	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+4%)	14mo	$305,000	$182	76
15111 Pipeline Ave #19	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	16mo	$280,000	$192	71
15111 Pipeline Ave #204	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	10mo	$143,000	$99	69
15111 Pipeline Ave #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	12mo	$319,000	$227	69
15111 Pipeline Ave #304	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	17mo	$190,000	$132	68
15111 Pipeline Ave #185	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	12mo	$80,000	$56	68
15111 Pipeline Ave #212	0.00mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+12%)	9mo	$125,000	$69	66
15111 Pipeline Ave #24	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	9mo	$110,000	$76	65
15111 Pipeline Ave #259	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-14%)	16mo	$295,500	$214	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $74,482
• Equity at exit: $25,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $170,336
• Equity at exit: $14,949

Cash invested: $48,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91709

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$216 /mo · $2,594/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $1,770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $172,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,889	-5% $1,830	+0% $1,770	+5% $1,710	+10% $1,650
Rent	-10% $1,473	-5% $1,622	+0% $1,770	+5% $1,918	+10% $2,066
Rate	-1.0pp $1,857	-0.5pp $1,814	base $1,770	+0.5pp $1,725	+1.0pp $1,680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,225
• Closing costs: $5,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15040 Beechwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$3,600	$2.20	44d	1	0.26mi
4432 Lilac Cir Chino Hills, CA	3.0	3.5	1695	$3,200	$1.89	5d	1	0.35mi
15031 Ashwood Ln Chino Hills, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	44d	1	0.37mi
4361 Los Serranos Blvd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1256	$3,200	$2.55	17d	1	0.42mi
4628 Bird Farm Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,250	$2.82	44d	1	0.57mi
14833 Maywood Dr Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	2081	$6,500	$3.12	0d	1	0.60mi
15345 Murray Ave Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$3,395	$2.22	3d	1	0.74mi
3724 Alder Pl Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1240	$3,600	$2.90	22d	1	0.81mi
15101 Fairfield Ranch Rd Chino Hills, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$3,600	$3.42	0d	16	0.96mi
15447 Pomona Rincon Rd Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1397	$3,350	$2.40	15d	2	1.01mi
16169 Singing Hills Dr Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1478	$3,600	$2.44	44d	1	1.26mi
15996 Mihaylo Ct Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$3,850	$2.50	44d	1	1.31mi
4346 Saint Andrews Dr Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	2120	$4,350	$2.05	44d	1	1.39mi
4346 Saint Andrews Dr Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	2120	$4,350	$2.05	24d	1	1.39mi
3100 Chino Hills Pkwy Chino Hills, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$4,033	$3.93	0d	25	1.40mi
15583 Oak Springs Rd Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	1703	$3,800	$2.23	15d	1	1.40mi
3099 Oakview Ln Chino Hills, CA	3.0	3.0	1640	$3,500	$2.13	44d	1	1.41mi
14728 Fieldflower Cir Chino Hills, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,800	$2.24	44d	1	1.45mi
15886 Ellington Way Chino Hills, CA	4.0	3.0	1848	$3,300	$1.79	17d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 621-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 450-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $172,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,685
• − Property taxes: −$2,594
• − Insurance: −$864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,603
• − Management: −$3,603
• − Depreciation: −$5,030
• Taxable income: $19,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,718
• After-tax cash flow: $16,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chino Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $83,575
• Composite: 49.56/100
• National rank: #4275
• State rank: #334 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Chino Hills

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #9993

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chino Hills, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 78,006
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,006
• Household income: $126,350
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 24% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Chinese 18% Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.62%
• Current HPI: 383.5042
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+94.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $172,900 CRMLS
• 2018-03-14 Sold (MLS) $89,000 CRMLS
• 2018-01-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-12-28 Listed $89,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $88 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.