Bayberry Plan

Balch Springs, TX 75181

$395,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,181
• Tax + insurance: −$693
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-605/mo
• Annual: $-7,263/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $116,451

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $396k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 768 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.