Bayberry Plan · Balch Springs, TX 75181

$416,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Bayberry floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large family room
• Custom cabinets

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING OR STUDY
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $416,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,511.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $417k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $286,220 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.41%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,511
• List price: $416,990
• Delta: -0.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Spearmint St	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,820 (0%)	1mo	$445,990	$158	87
106 Whistling Duck Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,820 (0%)	8mo	$464,990	$165	85
125 Meadow Rd	0.04mi	4/3.0	3,034 (+8%)	1mo	$428,999	$141	82
106 Spearmint St	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	1mo	$449,990	$178	74
145 Whistling Duck Dr	0.10mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,657 (-6%)	1mo	$449,990	$169	74
113 Whistling Duck Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	9mo	$444,990	$177	69
111 Whistling Duck Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,459 (-13%)	6mo	$419,990	$171	67
133 Silverleaf Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (-11%)	2mo	$439,990	$175	63
112 Woodlands Way	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,458 (-13%)	9mo	$409,990	$167	62
14754 Cedar Creek Way	0.59mi	4/2.5	3,028 (+7%)	6mo	$309,990	$102	55
1429 Junction Run	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,989 (+6%)	4mo	$355,900	$119	54
2024 Jasper Mdws	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-15%)	4mo	$427,825	$178	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-115,564
• Equity at exit: $62,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-183,372
• Equity at exit: $36,099

Cash invested: $116,903 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 77 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $426,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 342 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,263/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,652

Max offer price $327,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-336	-5% $-480	+0% $-624	+5% $-768	+10% $-913
Rent	-10% $-850	-5% $-737	+0% $-624	+5% $-511	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-414	-0.5pp $-518	base $-624	+0.5pp $-732	+1.0pp $-842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,378
• Closing costs: $12,525
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14801 Whispering Ct Balch Springs, TX	5.0	3.5	3238	$2,800	$0.86	42d	1	0.51mi
14860 Bell Manor Ct Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2358	$2,300	$0.98	33d	1	0.61mi
4642 Elm Point Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,175	$1.04	32d	1	0.62mi
1421 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2828	$2,725	$0.96	0d	1	0.68mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	37d	1	0.69mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,230	$1.06	13d	1	0.73mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	73d	1	0.78mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	57d	1	0.82mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	3d	1	0.82mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,600	$1.11	43d	1	0.86mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	73d	1	1.04mi
824 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	3d	1	1.11mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	70d	1	1.19mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	43d	1	1.19mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	73d	1	1.43mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$3,195	$1.25	7d	1	1.43mi
2636 Cumberland Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2059	$2,885	$1.40	28d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $416,990 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $416,990 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $416,990 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $416,990 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $416,990 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $416,990 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $416,990 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $416,990 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $416,990 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $416,990 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $416,990 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $416,990 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $416,990 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $416,990 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $416,990 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $416,990 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $416,990 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $416,990 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $416,990 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $416,990 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $416,990 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $416,990 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $416,990 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $416,990 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $416,990 Active 115 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $416,990 Active 114 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $416,990 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $416,990 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $416,990 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $416,990 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $416,990 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $416,990 Active 108 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $416,990 Active 107 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $416,990 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $416,990 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $416,990 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $416,990 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $416,990 Active 99 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $416,990 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $416,990 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $416,990 Active 94 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $416,990 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $416,990 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $416,990 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $416,990 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $416,990 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $416,990 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $416,990 Active 82 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $416,990 Active 81 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $416,990 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,387
• − Property taxes: −$6,263
• − Insurance: −$2,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,748
• − Management: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$12,146
• Taxable loss: −$15,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,608
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Balch Springs, TX, is in good condition with a neutral and modern aesthetic. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The kitchen and bathrooms are modern and functional. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior, replace the gutters, update the flooring, kitchen appliances, and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Terry Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Balch Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balch Springs, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $395,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $416,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Listed $446,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Listed $425,990 Zillow