Bayberry Plan · Balch Springs, TX 75181

$395,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Classic Series Bayberry floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining
• Large family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $395,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $414,867.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $396k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 858 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $291,932 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,867
• List price: $395,990
• Delta: -4.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Spearmint St	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,820 (0%)	4mo	$445,990	$158	84
106 Whistling Duck Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,820 (0%)	11mo	$464,990	$165	82
125 Meadow Rd	0.04mi	4/3.0	3,034 (+8%)	4mo	$428,999	$141	80
106 Spearmint St	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	4mo	$449,990	$178	72
145 Whistling Duck Dr	0.10mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,657 (-6%)	4mo	$449,990	$169	71
107 Walnut Way	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-10%)	3mo	$449,990	$178	68
111 Whistling Duck Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,459 (-13%)	9mo	$419,990	$171	64
133 Silverleaf Dr	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (-11%)	5mo	$439,990	$175	61
14754 Cedar Creek Way	0.59mi	4/2.5	3,028 (+7%)	10mo	$309,990	$102	52
1429 Junction Run	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,989 (+6%)	7mo	$355,900	$119	52
2020 Jasper Mdws	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,545 (-10%)	2mo	$429,350	$169	50
2024 Jasper Mdws	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-15%)	6mo	$427,825	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-111,261
• Equity at exit: $61,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-175,055
• Equity at exit: $35,870

Cash invested: $116,163 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.9 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $425,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,223/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,629

Max offer price $333,720

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-417	+0% $-561	+5% $-704	+10% $-847
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-676	+0% $-561	+5% $-445	+10% $-330
Rate	-1.0pp $-352	-0.5pp $-455	base $-561	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,717
• Closing costs: $12,446
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4212 Boxwood Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,125	$0.95	10d	1	0.35mi
14813 Whispering Ct Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,200	$0.92	65d	1	0.48mi
14813 Whispering Ct Unit Na Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,200	$0.92	50d	1	0.48mi
14801 Whispering Ct Balch Springs, TX	5.0	3.5	3238	$2,700	$0.83	64d	1	0.51mi
14860 Bell Manor Ct Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2358	$2,100	$0.89	10d	1	0.61mi
4642 Elm Point Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,175	$1.04	124d	1	0.62mi
14800 Ledgeview Ct Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	3091	$2,650	$0.86	10d	1	0.65mi
1421 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2828	$2,310	$0.82	57d	1	0.68mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	128d	1	0.69mi
4625 Bridlewood Ln Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	2388	$2,250	$0.94	53d	1	0.71mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,155	$1.02	50d	1	0.73mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	1d	1	0.78mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	165d	1	0.78mi
2732 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2989	$3,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.79mi
2512 Comstock Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	3089	$2,695	$0.87	10d	1	0.79mi
2512 Comstock Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	3089	$2,699	$0.87	17d	1	0.79mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,225	$1.14	51d	1	0.82mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	148d	1	0.82mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,600	$1.11	135d	1	0.86mi
3717 Grace Ln Unit Labs Mesquite, TX	5.0	4.5	3275	$3,640	$1.11	10d	1	0.94mi
2812 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2904	$2,545	$0.88	2d	1	1.00mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	165d	1	1.04mi
3512 Falcon Fld Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.5	2284	$2,996	$1.31	10d	1	1.05mi
2641 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2192	$3,645	$1.66	10d	1	1.10mi
824 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	95d	1	1.11mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	135d	1	1.19mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	161d	1	1.19mi
2740 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,884	$1.42	10d	1	1.25mi
624 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2444	$3,050	$1.25	83d	1	1.25mi
624 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2444	$2,600	$1.06	10d	1	1.25mi
1701 Shamrock Grn Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	3994	$3,800	$0.95	23d	1	1.34mi
1701 Shamrock Grn Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	3994	$4,400	$1.10	77d	1	1.34mi
2708 Cumberland Trl Balch Springs, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	10d	1	1.38mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	165d	1	1.43mi
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2713	$2,795	$1.03	10d	1	1.43mi
2636 Cumberland Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2059	$2,885	$1.40	120d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction planBayberry plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,820

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: BayberryActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $395,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $395,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $395,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $395,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $395,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $395,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $395,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $395,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $395,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $395,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $395,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $395,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $395,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $395,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $395,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $395,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $395,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $395,990 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $395,990 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $395,990 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $395,990 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $395,990 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $395,990 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $395,990 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $395,990 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $395,990 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $395,990 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $395,990 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $395,990 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $395,990 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $395,990 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $395,990 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $395,990 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $395,990 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $395,990 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $395,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $395,990 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $395,990 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $395,990 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $395,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $395,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $395,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $395,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $395,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $395,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $395,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $395,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $395,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $395,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $395,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,239
• − Property taxes: −$6,223
• − Insurance: −$2,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − Depreciation: −$12,069
• Taxable loss: −$14,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Balch Springs, TX, is in good condition with a neutral and modern aesthetic. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The kitchen and bathrooms are modern and functional. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior, replace the gutters, update the flooring, kitchen appliances, and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Terry Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Balch Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balch Springs, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 26,455
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction planBayberry plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,820

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: BayberryActive listing