253 Church St

Timberville, VA 22853

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,101 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 800 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,129/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 800 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#283 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 800 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.