253 Church St · Timberville, VA 22853

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 800 Days on market

Built 1920 1.46 ac lot $119/sqft · 21% below area Est $315k · 21% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Additional acreage available from Lot G. Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Original time period
• Victorian home

Tags

• VICTORIAN HOME
• ORIGINAL TIME PERIOD
• CHARM AND HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• MATURE TREES AND GARDEN
• DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#283 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 800 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 800 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -20.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
164 Church St	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,248 (+7%)	4mo	$420,000	$187	66
124 Belvedere St	0.20mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,223 (+6%)	2mo	$410,000	$184	66
244 Virginia Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,947 (-7%)	7mo	$279,900	$144	50
184 Church St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (-13%)	24mo	$200,100	$110	43
280 2nd Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,974 (-6%)	17mo	$240,000	$122	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,630
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,838
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22853

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $736/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,869

Max offer price $233,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-23	+0% $-94	+5% $-165	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-163	+0% $-94	+5% $-25	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-30	base $-94	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17022 Raders Church Rd Timberville, VA	3.0	2.5	1730	$1,750	$1.01	11d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 800 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 799 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 798 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 797 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 796 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 794 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 618-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 793 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 791 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 790 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 789 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 788 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 785 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 784 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 783 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 782 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 781 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 780 DOM
19. 2026-01-12
    price $285,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Acreage Increased to 2.44 Acres! This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

20. 2026-01-12
    price $285,000 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Acreage Increased to 2.44 Acres! This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

21. 2025-04-08
    price $269,000 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Additional acreage available from Lot G. Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

22. 2025-04-08
    price $269,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Additional acreage available from Lot G. Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

23. 2024-07-12
    price $299,800 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Acreage Increased to 2.44 Acres! This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

24. 2024-07-11
    price $299,800 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Additional acreage available from Lot G. Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

25. 2024-04-10
    listed $309,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Additional acreage available from Lot G. Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

26. 2024-03-26
    listed $309,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Acreage Increased to 2.44 Acres! This one is for the Fixer-Upper! Old Victorian home pretty close to original time period with lots of potential. Lots of charm and old hardwood floors waiting for you to bring back to life! Lots of history and views from the wrap around porch. Mature trees and garden space. Detached double garage and a few other outbuildings. Has natural gas, public water & sewer to the property. Convenient to I-81 and small town amenities in the towns of Broadway, Timberville and New Market. Property being SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,314/yr (+$109/mo · 178.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$736
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,178
• Composite: 47.58/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #77 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #10125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timberville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,876

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,435 people
• By 2030: 85,223 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 87,667 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 88,550 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 90,331 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 85,122 · +2.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 30.9% · R 68.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 189.9975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $285,000 HRAR
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $269,000 HRAR
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $269,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $299,800 HRAR
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $299,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $309,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-26 Listed $309,000 HRAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $736 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.