1628 Mogul Dr Unit 23A

Lake Mohegan, NY 10547

$109,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Built 1940 · Condo · Pending · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$362
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $535/mo
• Annual: $6,415/yr
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.85%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Titus Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 433 students, 26% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.