1628 Mogul Dr Unit 23A · Lake Mohegan, NY 10547

$109,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Condo · 230 Days on market

Built 1940 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1 Bedroom Ranch-style co-op with Living Room/Dining Room/Kitchen combo, Full Bath, large yard and a shed. This is situated on Level Property and Close to the Pool and Tennis Court. The roof was just replaced and new kitchen cabinets as well as new flooring was just installed. This complex is close to shopping and highway. Common charges of $395 include tax, tree care, maintenance of pool and tennis court and snow removal of road. Owner is responsible for mowing the lawn and shoveling the driveway/walkway. PROPERTY TOTALLY AVAILABLE - deal fell through as of 2/12/26.

Key facts

• Built 1940
• Listed 230 days

Tags

• SITUATED ON LEVEL PROPERTY
• CLOSE TO POOL AND TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Titus Elementary School (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 433 students, 26% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Lakeland High School (math 94% / reading 77%, grade A, #366 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 942 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.85%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $16,492
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $59,234
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10547

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$362
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,420

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 New Chalet Dr Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,855	$3.01	1d	9	0.87mi
1860 E Main St Unit 5 Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0	1.0	515	$1,950	$3.79	10d	1	1.13mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 5 Mohegan Lake, NY	—	1.0	400	$1,500	$3.75	10d	1	1.41mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 3 Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0	1.0	529	$1,900	$3.59	1d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: snow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   status Active
3. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-24
   status Active
5. 2025-09-23
   historical
6. 2025-09-13
   status Active
7. 2025-03-28
   status Pending
8. 2025-03-28
   status Active
9. 2025-02-21
   historical
10. 2025-02-04
    price $109,900
11. 2024-11-20
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − HOA: −$4,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $5,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $5,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Mohegan, NY
• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 7,361

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.19%
• Current HPI: 226.8344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $109,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Listed $119,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid