12507 Ridge Rd

Medina, NY 14103

$192,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-292/mo
• Annual: $-3,501/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $54,012

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $193k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (27.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $140k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $825 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-509 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lyndonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #260 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lyndonville Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 358 students, 53% FRL); L A Webber Middle-High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 235 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 34% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $193k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.