4829 S Derby Rd

Sheridan, MI 48885

$149,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,170/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (27.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $108k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#500 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Central Montcalm Public Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #377 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $150k implies a 837% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Sheridan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.