4829 S Derby Rd · Sheridan, MI 48885

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Insulated skirting
• Recent improvements

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
• INSULATED SKIRTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Sheridan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#500 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Central Montcalm Public Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #377 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 273 units permitted in Montcalm County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montcalm County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $150k implies a 837% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,236 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $70,137
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $215,633
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48885

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $123,730

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-09-17
   status Pending 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

2. 2025-09-17
   status Pending 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

3. 2025-09-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

4. 2025-09-09
   listed $149,900 Active 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

5. 2025-09-09
   listed $149,900 Active 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

6. 2025-09-09
   listed $149,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Great home in the country. This very well kept home is neat, clean and ready to move into. Recent improvements are roof, windows and skirting which is insulated. Stove refrigerator, washer and dryer are already there, just bring your clothes. Beautiful one acre lot with lots of room for a garden or garage.

7. 2010-11-02
   soldstatus $16,000
8. 2010-11-02
   soldstatus $16,000
9. 2010-10-12
   listed $19,900
10. 2010-10-12
    listed $19,900
11. 2007-01-09
    soldstatus $66,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Montcalm Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,682
• Composite: 24.93/100
• National rank: #7568
• State rank: #377 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sheridan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #14781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,273

Population outlook (Montcalm County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,011 people
• By 2030: 59,467 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 55,427 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 50,517 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 38,731 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 26,770 · -56.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montcalm

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 29.8% · R 68.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.29%
• Current HPI: 230.3981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+124.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $149,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-11-02 Sold (MLS) $16,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-11-02 Sold (MLS) $16,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2010-10-12 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-10-12 Listed $19,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2007-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records