2237 Lake Woodberry Cir

Brandon, FL 33510

$169,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 2001 · Townhouse · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$529
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,609/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brandon High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,560 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.