2237 Lake Woodberry Cir · Brandon, FL 33510

$169,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2001 744 sqft lot $529/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenient location close to shopping and entertainment. Located in a gated community. Immaculate townhome featuring 2 bedrooms 2 baths and screened in patio overlooking a park. HOA includes water, basic cable, garbage and community pool and play ground. Schedule your showing today. This one won't last long.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community pool
• Playground

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From I-75 and SR 60, head east on SR 60. Turn left onto Grand Regency Blvd. Turn right onto Woodberry Rd. Immediately turn right into Regency Key.
• Financial info: Total annual fees $6,348; No lease restrictions indicated; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Neighborly Management; Monthly HOA fee of $529; HOA includes cable TV, internet, pool, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities: gated entrance, pool, sidewalks, community mailbox, deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of planned development (PD)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened patio/rear porch; Patio; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brandon High School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,560 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,306 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-41,461
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-68,412
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33510

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$529
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $145,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1008 York Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,400	$1.85	17d	1	0.36mi
1701 Lake Chapman Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,777	$2.22	2d	32	0.86mi
107 Karde Ln Apt E Brandon, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	5d	1	0.90mi
2617 Chelsea Manor Blvd Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1211	$1,795	$1.48	24d	1	0.94mi
1428 Highland Ridge Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	2.5	1190	$1,500	$1.26	1d	1	1.18mi
10215 Estuary Lakes Dr Unit 220 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,472	$2.25	24d	1	1.22mi
10151 Iris Crosstown Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,910	$1.85	3d	78	1.27mi
10221 Estuary Lakes Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,945	$2.97	2d	42	1.28mi
2136 Lennox Dale Ln Unit Main Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,250	$1.53	17d	1	1.30mi
1918 Plantation Key Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,600	$1.75	1d	60	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $529 · $6,348/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashcablepoolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2021-03-10
   soldstatus $147,000 Sold 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Convenient location close to shopping and entertainment. Located in a gated community. Immaculate townhome featuring 2 bedrooms 2 baths and screened in patio overlooking a park. HOA includes water, basic cable, garbage and community pool and play ground. Schedule your showing today. This one won't last long.

4. 2021-01-28
   status Pending 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Convenient location close to shopping and entertainment. Located in a gated community. Immaculate townhome featuring 2 bedrooms 2 baths and screened in patio overlooking a park. HOA includes water, basic cable, garbage and community pool and play ground. Schedule your showing today. This one won't last long.

5. 2021-01-25
   listed $145,000 Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Convenient location close to shopping and entertainment. Located in a gated community. Immaculate townhome featuring 2 bedrooms 2 baths and screened in patio overlooking a park. HOA includes water, basic cable, garbage and community pool and play ground. Schedule your showing today. This one won't last long.

6. 2017-12-20
   soldstatus $124,900
7. 2017-12-15
   soldstatus $124,900 Sold 981-char remark

   Show marketing remark (981 chars)

   This beautiful, clean, move-in ready town home has been lovingly maintained by the original owner. Unit features 2 upstairs bedrooms with volume ceilings each having it's own bathroom with a 1/2 bath downstairs. Relax on the private lanai with a park like view. All appliances plus washer and dryer are included and new AC unit was installed in 2016. Kitchen is well equipped with ample cabinets and counter space and pantry. Live affordably and leisurely in this maintenance free, gated community conveniently located in Brandon close to Westfield Mall, movie theater, restaurants and only 10 miles to downtown Tampa. Quick access to SR-60, I-75, Crosstown, I-4 and US-301. HOA includes exterior maintenance, lawn and landscaping, basic cable, water and garbage. Regency Key boasts mature landscaping, community pool, playground, gazebo and volleyball area and is adjacent to Woodbury lake. Do not delay, make an appointment to see today and make plans to make this unit your own!

8. 2017-11-15
   status Pending 981-char remark

   Show marketing remark (981 chars)

   This beautiful, clean, move-in ready town home has been lovingly maintained by the original owner. Unit features 2 upstairs bedrooms with volume ceilings each having it's own bathroom with a 1/2 bath downstairs. Relax on the private lanai with a park like view. All appliances plus washer and dryer are included and new AC unit was installed in 2016. Kitchen is well equipped with ample cabinets and counter space and pantry. Live affordably and leisurely in this maintenance free, gated community conveniently located in Brandon close to Westfield Mall, movie theater, restaurants and only 10 miles to downtown Tampa. Quick access to SR-60, I-75, Crosstown, I-4 and US-301. HOA includes exterior maintenance, lawn and landscaping, basic cable, water and garbage. Regency Key boasts mature landscaping, community pool, playground, gazebo and volleyball area and is adjacent to Woodbury lake. Do not delay, make an appointment to see today and make plans to make this unit your own!

9. 2017-11-05
   listed $124,900 Active 981-char remark

   Show marketing remark (981 chars)

   This beautiful, clean, move-in ready town home has been lovingly maintained by the original owner. Unit features 2 upstairs bedrooms with volume ceilings each having it's own bathroom with a 1/2 bath downstairs. Relax on the private lanai with a park like view. All appliances plus washer and dryer are included and new AC unit was installed in 2016. Kitchen is well equipped with ample cabinets and counter space and pantry. Live affordably and leisurely in this maintenance free, gated community conveniently located in Brandon close to Westfield Mall, movie theater, restaurants and only 10 miles to downtown Tampa. Quick access to SR-60, I-75, Crosstown, I-4 and US-301. HOA includes exterior maintenance, lawn and landscaping, basic cable, water and garbage. Regency Key boasts mature landscaping, community pool, playground, gazebo and volleyball area and is adjacent to Woodbury lake. Do not delay, make an appointment to see today and make plans to make this unit your own!

10. 2017-10-31
    historical
11. 2017-10-18
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$6,348
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $-614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,578
• Household income: $74,245
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1192.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.54%
• Current HPI: 328.43
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+35.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-10 Sold (MLS) $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-25 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records
• 2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-05 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-18 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.