237 County Road 4927

Trenton, TX 75490

$385,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-544/mo
• Annual: $-6,524/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (36.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $245k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Trenton ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #483 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trenton El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 299 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.