237 County Road 4927 · Trenton, TX 75490

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2018 5.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on 5.25 acres, this property offers a peaceful country setting complete with a creek that runs through the property, a man-made pond, and plenty of space to enjoy. The well-maintained 2018 manufactured home features approximately 2,000 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Built with upgraded 2x6 exterior walls, added insulation, and a metal roof, the home offers both durability and efficiency. Inside, you’ll find 2 spacious living areas, large kitchen, dining area, oversized laundry room, and a huge primary suite with an attached primary bathroom. Enjoy the outdoors from the large covered front porch or

Key facts

• Oversized back deck
• Man-made pond
• 30x40 shop

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• MAN-MADE POND
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OVERSIZED BACK DECK
• FENCED FRONT YARD
• 30X40 SHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is approximately 5.25 acres (will not subdivide); One tank/pond on the lot; Parcel includes RV/boat storage and workshop structures; Some items included: refrigerator, freezer in laundry room, washer, dryer, TV and mount on side of workshop; hot tub and zero-turn mower are negotiable
• Financial info: Listing accepted for cash, conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 4 vehicles; Additional parking; Driveway; Carport; Garage (detached/has garage footprint 30' x 40'); Oversized parking; Side-by-side parking; Storage in parking area; Boat parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic / Septic; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Outside city limits utilities; Gravel/rock access
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential use; Deed restrictions; Located on a county road with gravel surface
• Construction: Built in 2018 (preowned); Wood construction; Metal roof; Combination foundation (concrete perimeter and pillar/post/pier)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Front porch; Deck; Patio; Gutters; Storage; Fenced front yard (partial); Acreage with large backyard grass; Many trees; Tank/pond on property; RV/boat storage; Workshop with electric; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in features; Flat screen wiring; High speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric water heater; Room for freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Trenton ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #483 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trenton El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 299 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,000 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $174,978
• Equity at exit: $346,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $542,364
• Equity at exit: $747,970

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75490

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,095/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,138

Max offer price $288,952

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
272 County Road 4921 Leonard, TX	3.0	1.5	1920	$2,450	$1.28	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $385,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,046 · $587/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,950/yr (+$413/mo · 236.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$2,095
• − Insurance: −$3,428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$13,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843140
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,383
• Composite: 31.38/100
• National rank: #5993
• State rank: #483 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #19614

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,024

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.09%
• Current HPI: 301.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $385,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,095 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.