6681 Spring Mill Cir

Lochearn, MD 21207

$310,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,662 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-430/mo
• Annual: $-5,158/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in MD, #4,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodmoor Elementary (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 70% FRL); Woodlawn Middle (math 6% / reading 26%, grade F, #183 of 225 statewide, top 84%, 633 students, 67% FRL); Woodlawn High (math 4% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 222 statewide, top 83%, 1,815 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 39% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $310k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.