6681 Spring Mill Cir · Lochearn, MD 21207

$310,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,662 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1989 5,699 sqft lot Est $273k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market due to buyer's inability to complete the transaction. Room to live, style to love—this one checks the boxes. Welcome to 6681 Spring Mill Cir, a beautifully maintained end-of-row home that lives larger than you’d expect, with a clean, modern feel throughout. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and everyday convenience. The spacious primary suite is a standout, featuring a skylight that fills the room with natural light and a private full bath for your own retreat. The layout flows easily for both daily living and entertaining, with just the right balance of open and defined spaces. Step outside to a lush, green back

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1989
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in MD, #4,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodmoor Elementary (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 70% FRL); Woodlawn Middle (math 6% / reading 26%, grade F, #183 of 225 statewide, top 84%, 633 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 39% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baltimore County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $310k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,138 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,568
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6677 Spring Ml	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,662 (0%)	5mo	$310,000	$187	93
6627 Spring Mill Cir	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+2%)	1mo	$295,000	$175	88
6667 Spring Mill Cir	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,638 (-1%)	24mo	$269,000	$164	75
6665 Spring Mill Cir	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,748 (+5%)	22mo	$275,000	$157	70
3239 Kelox Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,828 (+10%)	15mo	$345,000	$189	59
3221 Kelox Rd	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,896 (+14%)	5mo	$311,000	$164	58
6531 Woodgreen Cir	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,428 (-14%)	24mo	$230,000	$161	47
3435 Flannery Ln	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,536 (-8%)	2mo	$150,000	$98	46
3 Crestford Ct	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,860 (+12%)	14mo	$350,000	$188	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 5.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $135,512
• Equity at exit: $268,028

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $428,331
• Equity at exit: $566,452

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21207

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,575

Max offer price $234,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-254	-5% $-342	+0% $-430	+5% $-518	+10% $-605
Rent	-10% $-590	-5% $-510	+0% $-430	+5% $-350	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-351	base $-430	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6463 Woodgreen Cir Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	2.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	18d	1	0.26mi
3101 Windsor Blvd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,755	$2.08	2d	55	0.43mi
6226 Robin Hill Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,850	$2.50	17d	1	0.46mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	0.70mi
6330 Windsor Mill Rd Woodlawn, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	0.85mi
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	44d	1	0.90mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.17mi
7120 Bexhill Rd Windsor Mill, MD	3.0	1.0	1140	$2,124	$1.86	44d	1	1.30mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	15d	15	1.32mi
7206 Rutherford Green Cir Windsor Mill, MD	3.0	2.5	1372	$3,000	$2.19	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $310,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $310,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-04-24
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-20
    listed $320,000 Active
13. 1991-01-16
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,368 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,595
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lochearn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #4539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lochearn, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,099
• Household income: $67,060
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 843.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $320,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1991-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,357 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.