54 Horseshoe Dr

North Hurley, NM 88043

$100,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,133/yr
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.33%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#304 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.