54 Horseshoe Dr · North Hurley, NM 88043

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 1978 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

54 Horseshoe is located in North Hurley. This home provides almost a half-acre of land with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The right buyer can turn this house into a home. Call to set up an appointment today.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#304 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.33%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $13,908
• Equity at exit: $18,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $49,569
• Equity at exit: $14,063

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88043

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $264/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $456	+0% $428	+5% $399	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $377	+0% $428	+5% $479	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $453	base $428	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $100,000 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    54 Horseshoe is located in North Hurley. This home provides almost a half-acre of land with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The right buyer can turn this house into a home. Call to set up an appointment today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 202.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$264
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$885
• After-tax cash flow: $4,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobre Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500600
• Math proficiency: 13% —
• Reading proficiency: 33% —
• Median HH income: $32,044
• Composite: 21.77/100
• National rank: #13581
• State rank: #56 of 95 in NM

Livability — North Hurley

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #26095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Hurley, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,218

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,478 people
• By 2030: 25,179 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 22,711 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 20,807 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 16,893 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 45% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 52% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.1) · D 51.3% · R 46.3% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.1 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+7.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.31%
• Current HPI: 134.3788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $100,000 SCRMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.