483 Smith St

Radcliff, KY 40160

$115,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $353/mo
• Annual: $4,234/yr
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.15%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#367 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Park Elementary School (609 students, 67% FRL); North Middle School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 578 students, 65% FRL); North Hardin High School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 1,651 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $115k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.5% in Radcliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.