20730 Big Woods Rd

Barnesville, MD 20842

$445,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,225/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$516
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-301/mo
• Annual: $-3,616/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $323k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#382 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.