20730 Big Woods Rd · Barnesville, MD 20842

$445,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1957 4.44 ac lot $232/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare investor/developer opportunity with endless potential! Tucked away in a private, serene setting, this property offers the perfect canvas for your next project. Whether you envision a stunning new build or a complete transformation, the value here is truly in the land and its exceptional privacy. The existing home requires a full renovation or teardown—ideal for those ready to bring fresh vision and creativity. Property is served by well and septic; condition and operability are not guaranteed.

Key facts

• 4.44 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#382 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,507 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $989,405
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -55.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-91,391
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-104,661
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20842

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,961/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,606

Max offer price $391,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-175	+0% $-301	+5% $-427	+10% $-553
Rent	-10% $-556	-5% $-429	+0% $-301	+5% $-174	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-188	base $-301	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $445,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $445,000 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Rare investor/developer opportunity with endless potential! Tucked away in a private, serene setting, this property offers the perfect canvas for your next project. Whether you envision a stunning new build or a complete transformation, the value here is truly in the land and its exceptional privacy. The existing home requires a full renovation or teardown—ideal for those ready to bring fresh vision and creativity. Property is served by well and septic; condition and operability are not guaranteed.

16. 2026-04-23
    listed $550,000 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Rare investor/developer opportunity with endless potential! Tucked away in a private, serene setting, this property offers the perfect canvas for your next project. Whether you envision a stunning new build or a complete transformation, the value here is truly in the land and its exceptional privacy. The existing home requires a full renovation or teardown—ideal for those ready to bring fresh vision and creativity. Property is served by well and septic; condition and operability are not guaranteed.

17. 2026-04-21
    historical $550,000 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Rare investor/developer opportunity with endless potential! Tucked away in a private, serene setting, this property offers the perfect canvas for your next project. Whether you envision a stunning new build or a complete transformation, the value here is truly in the land and its exceptional privacy. The existing home requires a full renovation or teardown—ideal for those ready to bring fresh vision and creativity. Property is served by well and septic; condition and operability are not guaranteed.

18. 2024-02-20
    historical
19. 2024-02-13
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,961 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,406 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$3,961
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,096
• − Management: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$11,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,772
• After-tax cash flow: $-844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Barnesville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #20854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,093

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% French 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.74%
• Current HPI: 260.4266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+48.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $445,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $550,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Coming Soon $550,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-02-13 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,961 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.