307 Marlin Rd

Algood, TN 38580

$189,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-305/mo
• Annual: $-3,657/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (46.0% below list).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#54 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rickman Elementary (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #253 of 952 statewide, top 27%, 709 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 276 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Academy (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #143 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 885 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Algood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.