307 Marlin Rd · Algood, TN 38580

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1962 $158/sqft · 23% below area Est $246k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick home with large living room and kitchen, conveniently located between Livingston and Cookeville. Corner lot in Rickman with many possibilities. .. first time buyers have a blank canvas with hardwood floors and brick home to begin making it custom to your lifestyle, investors could begin cash flow immediately, or size down with a split floor plan with level lawn. Immediate occupancy!! carport with kitchen and laundry entrance.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Level lawn
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CORNER LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LEVEL LAWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (46.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Algood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#54 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rickman Elementary (math 41% / reading 37%, grade F, #253 of 952 statewide, top 27%, 709 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 276 students, 0% FRL); Livingston Academy (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #143 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 885 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,581 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,272
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -22.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Hall Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-0%)	9mo	$245,000	$204	65
302 Rickman Monterey Hwy	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,208 (+0%)	13mo	$155,000	$128	65
119 Sarah Dial Ln	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-4%)	11mo	$199,900	$173	61
4463 Rickman Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,205 (0%)	12mo	$220,000	$183	60
149 Hall Ln	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-4%)	11mo	$225,000	$195	56
128 Fred Miller Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (+12%)	10mo	$249,000	$185	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $83,908
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $262,150
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38580

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $136,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-251	+0% $-305	+5% $-359	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-345	+0% $-305	+5% $-264	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-256	base $-305	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-03-18
    price $189,900 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Brick home with large living room and kitchen, conveniently located between Livingston and Cookeville. Corner lot in Rickman with many possibilities. .. first time buyers have a blank canvas with hardwood floors and brick home to begin making it custom to your lifestyle, investors could begin cash flow immediately, or size down with a split floor plan with level lawn. Immediate occupancy!! carport with kitchen and laundry entrance.

18. 2025-12-09
    listed $194,900 Active 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Brick home with large living room and kitchen, conveniently located between Livingston and Cookeville. Corner lot in Rickman with many possibilities. .. first time buyers have a blank canvas with hardwood floors and brick home to begin making it custom to your lifestyle, investors could begin cash flow immediately, or size down with a split floor plan with level lawn. Immediate occupancy!! carport with kitchen and laundry entrance.

19. 2025-06-02
    price $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$866/yr (+$72/mo · 179.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Overton County
• NCES district ID: 4703330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,479
• Composite: 23.47/100
• National rank: #7879
• State rank: #70 of 139 in TN

Livability — Algood

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #7660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,628

Population outlook (Overton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,942 people
• By 2030: 21,633 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 20,812 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 19,770 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 17,125 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 13,695 · -37.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Overton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.4% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.29%
• Current HPI: 358.0905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $189,900 UCMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $194,900 UCMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $190,000 UCMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.