5819 Pioneer

San Antonio, TX 78245

$115,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1993 · Land · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $654/mo
• Annual: $7,849/yr
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.38%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.