5819 Pioneer · San Antonio, TX 78245

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Land public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1993 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and location. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the welcoming curb appeal and well-maintained exterior. Inside, the home features a bright and open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating a warm and connected atmosphere for gatherings with family and friends. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep easy and enjoyable, while the primary suite offers a private retreat with generous space to unwind at the end of the day. Additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Ample cabinet space
• Private retreat

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED EXTERIOR
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• BACKYARD READY FOR RELAXING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.38%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $17,910
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $49,471
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $815/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 County Road 485 Castroville, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,500	$1.21	3d	1	0.67mi
14739 Sycamore Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1734	$2,300	$1.33	4d	1	1.01mi
7063 Sycamore Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$1,950	$1.05	20d	1	1.17mi
6711 Hatchery Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,606	$1.10	12d	1	1.43mi
6432 Pickaxe Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,285	$1.01	17d	1	1.45mi
6432 Pickaxe Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,351	$1.07	23d	1	1.45mi
6734 Hatchery Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,741	$1.04	43d	1	1.46mi
6738 Hatchery Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,585	$1.09	43d	1	1.47mi
6741 Hatchery Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,811	$1.08	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-22
   soldstatus Sold
3. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-01
   listed $115,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $815 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,289/yr (+$107/mo · 158.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$815
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $6,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-22 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2026-03-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-01 Listed $115,000 LERA

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $815 · -54.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.