950 Koch Rd

Effort, PA 18058

$138,000B+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $441/mo
• Annual: $5,297/yr
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Palmerton Area SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #234 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $138k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.