950 Koch Rd · Effort, PA 18058

$138,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

For comparison purposes only, under agreement before hitting the market. This home had bad mold growth throughout the entire basement. and part of the upstairs. The roof was original and leaking into the house.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Palmerton Area SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #234 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $138k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $138,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,880
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
85 Panorama Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+7%)	6mo	$312,500	$186	77
1255 Trachsville Hill Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,566 (+0%)	24mo	$350,000	$223	48
123 Robin Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	11mo	$389,000	$278	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $70,152
• Equity at exit: $88,939

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $184,100
• Equity at exit: $163,209

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,224/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-08
   listed $138,000 Active
3. 2005-03-30
   soldstatus $57,362

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,224 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,224 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$4,224
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $3,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$824
• After-tax cash flow: $4,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmerton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4218360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,180
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3758
• State rank: #234 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,643 people
• By 2030: 59,840 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 50,843 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 43,326 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 37,126 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+140.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $138,000 GLVRMLS
• 2005-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $57,362 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,224 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.