4545 NE Aurora Ave

Des Moines, IA 50317

$99,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 401 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $502/mo
• Annual: $6,020/yr
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.72%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in IA, #1,432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Southeast Polk Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #70 of 289 in IA (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.1% in Des Moines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.