4545 NE Aurora Ave · Des Moines, IA 50317

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 401 Days on market

Built 1940 0.74 ac lot $71/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• City water
• Rural setting

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• CAPITOL HEIGHTS NEIGHBORHOOD
• MATURE TREES
• RURAL SETTING
• SOUTHEAST POLK SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.1% in Des Moines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in IA, #1,432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Southeast Polk Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #70 of 289 in IA (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.72%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,717
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -68.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4315 Grover Woods Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+2%)	1mo	$290,000	$202	76
4629 E Valdez Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,380 (-2%)	2mo	$337,000	$244	76
4295 Grover Woods Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+2%)	0mo	$319,900	$223	75
4316 Grover Woods Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+2%)	2mo	$284,500	$199	74
4287 Grover Woods Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+2%)	1mo	$310,000	$216	73
4304 Grover Woods Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,538 (+10%)	3mo	$295,000	$192	58
4401 Honey Bee Rdg	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,538 (+10%)	1mo	$298,000	$194	58
4392 Honey Bee Rdg	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,538 (+10%)	2mo	$309,900	$201	57
4427 Honey Bee Rdg	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,562 (+12%)	1mo	$290,000	$186	55
4299 Grover Woods Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,213 (-13%)	4mo	$319,900	$264	50
4249 E Douglas Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,488 (+6%)	2mo	$290,000	$195	50
4400 Honey Bee Rdg	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,213 (-13%)	3mo	$324,050	$267	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $14,869
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $49,882
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50317

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $859

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4216 E 50th St Des Moines, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,415	$1.63	14d	17	0.38mi
4014 Hubbell Ave Des Moines, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	14d	13	0.73mi
1490 34th Ave SW Altoona, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,884	$1.89	14d	11	1.01mi
4251 Grandview Ave Des Moines, IA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,610	$1.36	14d	1	1.05mi
4303 Morton Ave Des Moines, IA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,610	$1.36	14d	1	1.10mi
3722 Hubbell Ave Des Moines, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$975	$1.27	14d	2	1.16mi
3560 E Douglas Ave Des Moines, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,145	$1.32	14d	14	1.19mi
1101 34th Ave SW Altoona, IA	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,299	$1.07	14d	1	1.26mi
2822 20th St SW Altoona, IA	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,095	$1.78	14d	1	1.34mi
1554 28th Ave SW Altoona, IA	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	43d	1	1.35mi
1550 28th Ave SW Altoona, IA	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 400 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 399 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 398 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 396 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 385 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 384 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 383 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 382 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

16. 2026-03-27
    historical 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

17. 2025-12-03
    status Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

18. 2025-12-03
    price $99,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

19. 2025-11-27
    historical 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

20. 2025-07-16
    price $104,900 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

21. 2025-05-17
    price $114,900 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

22. 2025-04-25
    price $119,900 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

23. 2025-03-27
    listed $124,500 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

24. 2025-03-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to own such an expansive lot, just under 3/4 acre in the Capitol Heights neighborhood South of Hubbell avenue very near to all the amenities and attractions that Altoona has to offer. The lot has mature trees and the tranquility of living in a more rural setting. Located within the Southeast Polk (SEP) school district, city water, and electric services are readily available on the lot. There is currently a home on the property that needs extensive work or removal. This is an AS-IS sale. The lot could possibly even be split upon approval. This is outside the city limits. A great location for new construction and the opportunity for an outbuilding. So many possibilities!

25. 2024-08-23
    price $110,000
26. 2024-08-08
    soldstatus $78,000
27. 2024-08-03
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southeast Polk Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1926820
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $73,440
• Composite: 64.1/100
• National rank: #575
• State rank: #70 of 289 in IA

Livability — Des Moines

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #1432

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 203,612
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 36,548
• Household income: $65,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.00%
• Current HPI: 281.7409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $99,000 DMMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $104,900 DMMLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $114,900 DMMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $119,900 DMMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $124,500 DMMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $110,000 DMMLS
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-03 Listed $125,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.