3 Church St

Glen Aubrey, NY 13797

$149,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 884 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-349/mo
• Annual: $-4,190/yr
• Cap rate: 3.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.04%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (40.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $87k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,121 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Whitney Point Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #390 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caryl E Adams Primary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 463 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Whitney Point Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $149k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.