3 Church St · Glen Aubrey, NY 13797

$149,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HANDYMAN DREAM. Move in Ready! MANY POSSIBILITIES To make it your own with partially finished Basement & Oversized Garage. , EASY CONVENIENT LOCATION. Worth ALook!

Key facts

• Oversized garage
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• EASY CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-349 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,121 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Whitney Point Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #390 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caryl E Adams Primary School (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 463 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Whitney Point Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $149k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,320 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.04%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $35,080
• Equity at exit: $108,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $118,323
• Equity at exit: $212,040

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13797

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,527/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $87,320

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $149,000 Active
3. 2017-02-15
   soldstatus $60,000
4. 2006-06-30
   soldstatus $42,000
5. 2000-01-03
   soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,527 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,527
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$857
• − Management: −$857
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$6,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631380
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,416
• Composite: 42.59/100
• National rank: #3192
• State rank: #390 of 590 in NY

Livability — Glen Aubrey

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #23076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 445
• Population (ZIP): 2,105

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.57%
• Current HPI: 340.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+776.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — GBAOR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $149,000 GBAOR
• 2017-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,527 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.