4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,638 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,567/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$356
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$329
Net cashflow
$-57/mo
Annual
$-680/yr
Cap rate
5.91%
Cash-on-cash
-1.36%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $179k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (5.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.5% below list).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#488 in PA, #4,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
West York Area SD (suburban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #379 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Trimmer El Sch (math 29% / reading 46%, grade F, #997 of 1,518 statewide, top 66%, 415 students, 57% FRL); West York Area Ms (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #367 of 512 statewide, top 73%, 675 students, 53% FRL); West York Area Hs (math 57% / reading 30%, grade F, #213 of 437 statewide, top 49%, 869 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
12 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $179k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in West York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-EP8KWVBF0DZ4JZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29