3040 Lakeview

Nice, CA 95464

$112,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1969 · Land · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $241/mo
• Annual: $2,891/yr
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#652 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.1% in Nice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.